Working Papers
The Path of EU Integration For Belarus
This paper develops a structured framework for Belarus’s potential path toward European Union integration under conditions of deep structural and institutional constraints. Unlike typical enlargement cases, Belarus faces a dual transition challenge: it must simultaneously undertake internal institutional transformation and external disengagement from Russia-led integration frameworks, including the EAEU and the Union State. Building on comparative evidence from Ukraine, Moldova, and Armenia, the paper proposes a continuous, stage-based integration pathway. This framework combines an initial transition phase anchored in a CEPA-type arrangement, a core convergence phase based on the implementation of an Association Agreement and DCFTA, and a final stage of formal accession negotiations. The analysis emphasizes that successful integration requires early institutional anchoring, a clearly defined long-term trajectory, and careful synchronization of reforms with exit procedures from existing Russia-centered integration frameworks. The paper also provides an indicative timeline, suggesting that, under favorable political and institutional conditions, full integration could be achieved within a 10–15 year horizon. A central insight is that EU integration for Belarus represents a case of “integration under constraints,” where forward convergence to EU standards must be combined with backward institutional disentanglement. In this context, the Belarusian case illustrates how accession pathways can be operationalized in structurally constrained environments while remaining consistent with the formal logic of EU enlargement