Expert Opinion. July 2025

The National Bank of Belarus is effectively losing its status as an autonomous authority and increas- ingly submitting to the current interests of the executive branch. However, the shift in monetary policy focus from price stability to administrative support of GDP growth intensifies economic overheating, weakens the institutional foundations of development, and increases vulnerability to external shocks. 

SLOWDOWN SIGNALS: OUTLOOK FOR THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

After two years of rapid economic growth in Russia, it has sharply decelerated — largely due to the Central Bank’s tight policies. Although the downturn will continue, a full-fledged recession is unlikely. Even if the regulator shifts toward monetary easing, it will only give the economy a boost by the end of this year at best, but more likely in 2026. 

INVISIBLE WORK: THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF DOMESTIC LABOR AND DISTORTIONS IN ITS DISTRIBUTION

Domestic labor is a large and systematically underestimated component of economic life. Despite consuming several hours daily, it goes unrecorded in statistics, unpaid, and unaccounted for in official work experience. Given that it is primarily performed by women, this invisibility distorts the picture of economic activity, increases labor market vulnerabilities, and leads to the erosion of human capital.