Express Analysis. August 2022

Belarusian economy continued stalling in July, and based on the outcomes of the first eight months of the year, the GDP decline will remain over 5% YoY.

The GDP of Belarus has decreased by 5.2% YoY in seven months, which is slightly lower than the July estimate (-4.5) — (-4.9%). The deviation is due to the slower dynamics of the harvesting campaign in July 2022 vs last year. This factor will change its direction against the backdrop of catching up the pace of grain harvesting and its higher yield already in August. Without the agricultural sector, the GDP decline in January-July would have been at the lower level of the forecast and would amount to 4.8–4.9% YoY.