Express Analysis
Express Analysis. September 2025
Belarus’ GDP rose significantly in August due to agriculture, while excluding its contribution, growth remained close to zero
Over the first eight months of 2025, GDP increased by 1.6% YoY, while in August alone it rose by ≈3.6% YoY. The output expansion was driven by the buildup of agricultural production amid a delayed grain harvest and higher yields. Excluding agriculture, GDP growth in August 2025 is estimated at about 0.1% YoY after ≈0.1% YoY and ≈0.6% YoY in July and June 2025, respectively.
GDP growth was restrained by weaker dynamics in export-oriented sectors (industry, wholesale trade, freight transportation) amid declining demand in the Russian market and labor shortages. Domestic demand remained elevated in a context of loose economic policy. As a result, the Belarusian economy stayed overheated. Based on nine-month results, cumulative GDP growth is expected at about 1.5–1.8% YoY.
Annual inflation fell to 7.2% YoY in August, while the annualized monthly price growth slowed to ≈5–6% MoM (seasonally adjusted). The slowdown in food price growth remained the key factor driving inflation down, while the increase in the cost of non-regulated services rose above 10% MoM amid strong domestic demand. In September, annual inflation is expected to be around 7.2–7.5% YoY, with the forecast range of 7–9% YoY by year-end remaining relevant.