Express Analysis

21.10.2025

Express Analysis. October 2025

Belarus’ GDP showed near-zero growth in Q3-2025 due to a decline in export-oriented industrial output 

Over the first nine months of 2025, GDP grew by 1.6% YoY, and separately in September – by ≈1.3% YoY. The GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in September decreased by 0.7-0.8% compared to August. The volatility of agricultural and construction activity had a restraining effect on output dynamics in early autumn, while manufacturing activity showed a slight corrective increase.

Overall, in Q3-2025, Belarus’ GDP remained close to the level of the previous period (Fig. 2.a), corresponding to an annual growth rate of 0.8%. The contraction of industrial output and wholesale trade turnover amid weakening external demand restrained GDP growth. Domestic demand continued to expand in both consumer and investment segments under a non-restrictive economic policy. At the same time, consumer activity growth is becoming more moderate due to the National Bank’s restrictions on expanding banks’ retail loan portfolios. If this trend persists and demand in Russia remains subdued, Belarus’ GDP will increase by 1.5–1.8% for the full year 2025.

Due to the “cooling” of external demand, economic overheating decreased to ≈2.2% of potential GDP in Q3-2025 (preliminary estimate). Aggregate demand remains in excess of production capacity, which will maintain price pressure. Taking into account some tightening of price control measures and more restrained GDP dynamics, annual inflation is forecast to be at the lower end of the 7–9% YoY range by the end of 2025.